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Mumbai19 minutes ago
During the time of Corona, there was a loss of $ 83 billion to GDP i.e. 6 lakh crore rupees, if we hold the rate of 73 rupees in comparison to the dollar which is going on now. Accordingly, the size of our GDP is $ 2.7 trillion.
- The country’s economy is already declining due to Corona
- The growth forecast for the economy in the current year is around 7.9 to 9%.
The Indian economy has suffered a loss of about $ 83 billion in the financial year 2020-21. The country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 7.3% during this period. In such a situation, the target of the Indian economy to become a $5 trillion economy by 2025 seems difficult.
fall before corona
Although the decline in GDP is already coming from Corona. Corona is one reason. Before that, if we look from FY2018 onwards, the economy continues to decline. The reason for this has been that the interest rate on savings and investments kept on decreasing. Some economists believe that the demonetization of 500 and 1000 rupee notes in the year 2016 and then the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the next year saw its impact on the economy. This affected the economy.
Challenges won’t end soon
There are more challenges ahead in the economy. Because the effect of corona is not going to end so soon. Its effect has badly affected everyone’s savings and expenses including unemployment to business. In such a situation, it will take a long time for the economy to get back on track, people will get employment and invest and save.
Recovery will be seen in the second half
Economists believe that the second half of this current financial year i.e. from April 2021 to March 2022, that is, between October and March, will see a good recovery in GDP. By the way, between April of 2020 and March of 2021, the same trend was there. Then there was a decline in GDP in the first two quarters and then there was a recovery in the subsequent two quarters.
The economy grew since 2012, but the economy fell after 2016
Talking about the annual real GDP growth, in the year 2012-13, there was a growth of 5.5% in the country’s economy. It was 6.4% in 2013-14, then it reached 7.4 in 2014-15 and 8% in 2015-16. It reached 8.3% in 2016-17 but fell to 6.8% the very next year. The GDP growth rate in 2018-19 was 6.5% while in 2019-20 it came down to 4%. That is, by March 2020. In March of 2021 this year, it came down to -7.3%, which is the first time in the last 40 years that there has been a decline in GDP on an annual basis.
The size of 5 trillion dollars is difficult by 2025
Now let us see why GDP will not be 5 trillion dollars by 2025. Actually, during the time of Corona, there was a loss of $ 83 billion to GDP i.e. 6 lakh crore rupees, if we hold the rate of 73 rupees in comparison to the dollar which is going on now. Accordingly, the size of our GDP is $ 2.7 trillion.
25% growth needed every year in 3 years
According to this, in the next 3 years, India will have to bring GDP growth of 25% annually. That is, what has never happened in the history of the Indian economy till now, even half of its growth has been only occasionally. The phase of Corona we are going through right now and the way the third and fourth wave are coming, in such a situation it is even more impossible. Analysts believe that even if it is assumed that Corona will end in this year and everything will be back on track, even 25% growth is impossible.
Like major countries, impact on India too
Talking about the major countries during the time of Corona, India’s economy has been among the most affected countries. America’s GDP fell by 3.5% while Germany’s fell by 4.9%, France’s 8.2%, Italy’s 8.9%, Spain’s 11%. Japan’s fell by 4.8%, while the UK economy fell by 9.9%. China’s economy performed the best during this period and its GDP grew by 2.3%. South Africa’s GDP fell by 7%.
The growth of the economy in the current year is estimated to be around 9%
Now the estimate for GDP growth in this current year is something like this. Edelweiss has projected 9 to 9.5% growth while Moody’s 9.3%, ICICI Securities 9.6%, Yes Bank 8.5%, SBI Research 7.9%, HSBC 8% and Kotak Economic Research 9%. have guessed.
Now even if there is such a growth in this year, then the rate of growth in the remaining years should be more than 25%. In such a situation, it is very difficult that India will get 5 trillion dollar economy in due time.